Recently, there have been some talk inside the NFL about maybe changing the overtime rules. On one hand you have some people who feel there is no problem watching two teams fight it out for an hour, just to have what should be the best part of the game because the last possession of the ball requires the ball holder to just move it 40 yards to score that winning FG.

Alternatively, you will find individuals (such as the current commissioner Roger Goodell) who really feel that should you not be capable to win the game within the very first 60 minutes, then you’ve no gripe about how exactly it gets decided following that and clearly no sports handicapping issues. That’s simply a totally worthless discussion, but I’ll reach that next.

More concerning is what a change to the overtime rules might mean for gambling and sports handicapping reasons. We all know (even if they don’t want to admit it) that the NFL owes some of its popularity to the fact that it is the most heavily wagered on sport in America. So if the league went to some sort of OT system like the college game has, what would that do to the validity of lines that are put out on NFL games, particulary totals or over/unders?

Picture this, should you place a wager on a game that has a posted final of 42. Following regulation the score is tangled up at 14. Thus your bet for the game not making it under the posted final score looks fairly great, correct? Well let’s say the overtime structure was much more like it is in college exactly where both teams obtain the ball regardless of anything.

Let’s say they both score a TD in overtime. Right now you could be have as much as 42 points. Then one more OT having a couple field goals, after which one more having a field goal to win it. You went from getting a great chance with the game landing on the complete of 31 with the usual overtime determining field goal, to getting a game exactly where the total went up as much as 51. This all in what exactly is essentially ’stop time’ or having no more time left to run off the clock.

Therefore, I want to go on record saying two things. The first, the OT system is definitely broken. When you have the coin flip be more important than any of the players on the field, that’s a problem. And the winner of the coin flip in NFL overtimes wins an amazing 60% of the time. In fact, more than 30% of the time the team the loses the flip never even sees the ball! And no you don’t have to go to the college system either. You could do that for 1 possession each: if both teams score the same amount in that exchange THEN you go to sudden death.

Regarding sports handicapping I might then allow it to be (like they should have carried out already for NCAA Football) a soccer rule for gambling reasons. In tournaments and games in soccer, where there is really a chance of overtime or penalty kicks, the betting line doesn’t take into consideration these additional frames. That’s why they have a Draw line. When the game ends in a tie following 90 minutes, the teams might continue to play to figure out a victor however for gambling reasons the overall game is finished.

My thoughts are that the national football league should have the same rules as soccer, but especially when or if the over time rules are modified. If you allow the game to continue on for betting reasons after the hour is up there will be no bloated scores that mock betting lines. Thus the rules should be changed to accentuate the players; not the coin flip, I feel that the betting rules also have to change.

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